Report: US may undercut China on batteries by 2030
Posted in General

Report: US may undercut China on batteries by 2030

The U.S. could produce cheaper EV batteries than China by 2030, according to a new report by analysis firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (via Politico). But that depends on Biden administration policies undergirding current battery-manufacturing momentum staying in place.

The cost reductions are dependent on tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), according to the report. The 2022 legislation, which Benchmark notes has already led to a “surge” in battery investments, offers a manufacturing tax credit of up to $35 per kwh for U.S.-produced cells up to 2029.

With tax credits taken into account, the average cost of U.S. battery production at the cell level could fall from $118 per kwh today to $76.8 per kwh in 2029, according to analysts, giving U.S. battery factories the “lowest-cost operations globally”—erasing China’s current cost advantage and perhaps allowing more exports from U.S. plants.

Rendering of planned General Motors Ultium Cells Lansing battery plant

Rendering of planned General Motors Ultium Cells Lansing battery plant

Key to this scenario is whether the incoming Trump administration continues to set aside funds for battery-manufacturing tax credits. The IRA may have created enough jobs to save it from being killed outright, but the administration could use any discretionary power it has under the legislation to hold back battery subsidies. Trump reportedly offering to nix EV incentives for a very large donation from Big Oil during the campaign.

Even with the tax credits intact, achieving cheaper EV batteries in the U.S. faces additional obstacles. Companies may cancel projects if EV demand doesn’t rise as quickly as expected, the report noted. Since the IRA was passed in Aug. 2022, 23 new battery factories have been proposed, which would bring the total number of U.S. battery factories to 40. But over a third of these new projects haven’t begun construction, analysts found.

The average construction time for new battery factories in North America is also 30 months, compared to 20 months for China, according to the report. Unionized workforces and less access to refined battery materials also makes battery production more expensive in the U.S. than in China, analysts said. Some cost reductions are expected once factories are up and running, though.

Ford Blue Oval City - rendering of manufacturing complex in Tennessee, September 2021

Ford Blue Oval City – rendering of manufacturing complex in Tennessee, September 2021

Yet the IRA is boosting the financial case for making batteries in the U.S., the report emphasized. LG Energy Solution said earlier this year that IRA tax credits had turned its operating income from a loss of 235 billion won (approximately $180 million at current exchange rates) to a profit of 195 billion won ($138 million) in the second quarter. And Panasonic reported that tax credits increased its earnings margin from 7% to 18% for the fiscal year ending in 2024.

Cheaper batteries make for cheaper cars, which could have a bigger long-term impact on EV adoption than tax credits for vehicle purchases themselves. A recent study by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) found that, while IRA tax credits have helped lower emissions and boost U.S. manufacturing, they tend to go to people who would have bought an EV anyway and are thus of questionable value.

2025 Dodge Durango drops 6.4-liter V-8
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2025 Dodge Durango drops 6.4-liter V-8

2025 Dodge Durango SRT Hellcat Hammerhead2025 Dodge Durango available with 5.7-liter and supercharged 6.2-liter V-8s, plus 3.6-liter V-6 New special editions celebrate V-8’s approaching demise in the Durango Order books for 2025 Durango already open The Durango is the last Dodge still available with a Hemi V-8, but the engine’s days in the popular three-row SUV are coming to an end…

China's CATL open to building US battery plant if Trump allows
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China’s CATL open to building US battery plant if Trump allows

  • Chines battery supplier CATL could build a plant in the U.S.
  • The decision would hinge on whether Trump’s administration allows the Chinese to enter the market
  • CATL wanted to invest in the U.S. but to date the government’s said no

Chinese battery supplier CATL is open to building a U.S. factory if the incoming Trump administration allows it, the company’s founder said in a recent interview.

“Originally, when we wanted to invest in the U.S., the U.S. government said no,” Robin Zeng said in an interview with Reuters published Wednesday. “For me, I’m really open-minded.”

CATL has so far limited its U.S. presence to licensing deals with automakers. Ford in 2023 announced a Michigan battery plant to build lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which the automaker has said are a key to EV affordability. The battery cells produced there would be based on CATL tech, but the factory itself would be owned by Ford. An April report said General Motors may be seeking a similar deal with CATL.

Ford Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning getting CATL LFP batteries

Ford Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning getting CATL LFP batteries

Even before Trump, who launched a trade war with China during his first term in 2017, was elected to a second term as president, that arrangement was already under threat.

Under existing Biden administration policy, vehicles with Chinese-made batteries do not qualify for a federal EV tax credit, nor do vehicles manufactured by entities in whose parent companies the Chinese government has a stake. A Republican bill, opposed by the current administration, would also eliminate tax credits for EVs making use of Chinese battery tech licensed by U.S. automakers.

Yet while Trump wants to prevent imports of cars from Chinese automakers—even if they’re assembled in other countries like Mexico—Reuters notes that in an August interview he was open to Chinese firms building cars in the U.S.

CATL Freevoy plug-in hybrid battery pack

CATL Freevoy plug-in hybrid battery pack

“We’re going to give incentives, and if China and other countries want to come here and sell cars, they’re going to build plants here, and they’re going to hire our workers,” Trump said in August. Zeng appears optimistic that this policy will apply to batteries as well, telling Reuters that “I do hope that in the future they are open to investments.”

It remains to be seen what batteries CATL would produce in the U.S., but the company is currently expanding its commercial-vehicle battery-supply business in its home market, and recently launched a mixed-chemistry battery pack designed for plug-in hybrids.

Volkswagen's stake in Rivian grows to $5.8B, joint venture now formed
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Volkswagen’s stake in Rivian grows to $5.8B, joint venture now formed

  • VW’s taking a larger stake in Rivian, now up to $5.8 billion
  • Rivian and VW’s joint venture has formally been created
  • The Rivian R2 in 2026 and a Volkswagen in 2027 will be the first vehicles to feature the new joint-venture electrical architecture

The Volkswagen Group on Tuesday announced that it would up its investment in Rivian as the two companies officially launched their previously announced Rivian and VW Group Technology joint venture.

The joint venture was announced in June with an initial investment of $5 billion from the VW Group over a period of years in exchange for access to Rivian’s electrical architecture and software development expertise.

On Tuesday, the VW Group and Rivian announced that the investment would be increased to $5.8 billion. This is the result of VW pulling ahead some future capital and changing the original deal structure, the companies said.

Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe (left) and Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume

Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe (left) and Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume

Under the updated terms of the deal, $1.3 billion is set to be spent on software development, a further $3.5 billion will be spent by the VW Group to purchase shares of Rivian, and the remaining $1 billion is earmarked for a potential loan by VW to Rivian.

The joint venture, which is expected to start operations Nov. 13, will focus on developing and supply electrical architecture and software systems to both companies, with features like network hardware and software stacks that enable vehicles to be updated over the air for their full life cycle mentioned during an investor briefing.

At the same briefing, the two companies confirmed that the first vehicle to use these jointly developed systems will be the Rivian R2 crossover due in 2026. The additional investment from VW may be the difference in getting that lower-priced model across the line, as well as funding further development of the hatchback-like R3 and several additional models Rivian has teased.

Rivian and Volkswagen Group electrical architecture and software stack

Rivian and Volkswagen Group electrical architecture and software stack

The VW Group said that some Volkswagen-brand models will likely be the first of its vehicles to use the new systems in 2027, followed by vehicles from Audi and the new Scout brand. VW Group CEO Oliver Blume said some sports cars could also use the systems, without providing further details.

The joint venture will initially be based in Silicon Valley and employ around 1,000 engineers. Three additional sites in the U.S. and Europe are planned for the near future.

Both companies noted that they were open to additional collaboration in other areas such as batteries, whole vehicle platforms, and joint production, but said that would be outside the scope of the current joint venture. It also appears Rivian won’t join development of the VW Group’s Scalable Systems Platform (SSP) for next-generation EVs which, according to a report published in July, is being delayed by software issues.

A Ford Mustang Mach-E Rally dominated an SCCA RallyCross
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A Ford Mustang Mach-E Rally dominated an SCCA RallyCross

Ford Mustang Mach-E Rally dominating an SCCA RallyCrossA Ford Mustang Mach-E Rally was the quickest car around an SCCA RallyCross course The Mustang Mach-E Rally won both its class and the outright event A Ford engineer was behind the wheel, simply as weekend fun Attendees and participants at the Detroit Octoberfast RallyCross event at the Auto City Speedway didn’t hear it coming, but an EV came…

Top 10 electric cars with the most range
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Top 10 electric cars with the most range

2025 Hyundai Ioniq 6Need range ratings of 350 miles, 400 miles, or more before you can comfortably make the jump to an electric vehicle? Now you have plenty of options. But for many of them, you’d better have a big budget. To take a step back, the market demand for ever-higher range ratings is nested in an inconvenient truth: EPA range ratings represent an…

2025 Polestar 2 drops the best-driving, highest-range versions
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2025 Polestar 2 drops the best-driving, highest-range versions

The 2025 Polestar 2 lineup shrinks to just one configuration, dropping the less-expensive, higher-range models.

First spotted by Car and Driver, the 2025 Polestar 2 will only be available in Performance Pack spec. That means the base single-motor version, as well as the non-Performance dual-motor version, are history.

2025 Polestar 2

2025 Polestar 2

The single-motor version, which switched from front-wheel drive to rear-wheel drive as part of a refresh of the Polestar 2 for 2024, was the longest-range configuration, with an EPA-rated 320 miles of range from an 82-kwh battery pack. All-wheel drive models have a 78-kwh pack, and 2024 models achieved a maximum 276 miles in non-Performance guise. Performance Pack models were rated at 247 miles for 2024, so the Polestar 2 is likely to see a substantial effective drop in range for 2025.

The Performance Pack does include manually-adjustable Öhlins monotube dampers, upgraded brakes, and Continental SportContact 6 performance tires, but in a sampling of the 2024 Polestar 2 lineup, we found it didn’t feel as balanced or at ease with itself as the rear-wheel drive version. For 2025, output does rise back to 469 hp, which Performance Pack models made prior to 2024, while keeping the higher 546 lb-ft of torque figure from that model year.

2025 Polestar 2

2025 Polestar 2

In addition to the Performance Pack, and the Pilot Pack of driver-assist features that was standard on all-wheel drive models for 2024, the 2025 Polestar 2 comes standard with the Climate and Plus Packs. But this configuration costs $66,200, a big step up from the $51,300 base price of the single-motor 2024 model.

Green Car Reports has reached out to Polestar for comment and was told the automaker’s committed to being a three-car company with the addition of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4.

2025 Jeep Wagoneer
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2025 Jeep Wagoneer

2025 Jeep WagoneerWhat kind of vehicle is the 2025 Jeep Wagoneer? What does it compare to? The Wagoneer is a full-size, three-row SUV with traditional body-on-frame construction. Shop it against the Chevrolet Tahoe and Suburban as well as the Ford Expedition. The Grand Wagoneer has higher-end finishes inside and out and more features, putting it in contention with…

Lucid Air cop car tested by California Highway Patrol
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Lucid Air cop car tested by California Highway Patrol

Lucid Motors is pitching its Air electric sedan as a potential police cruiser.

On Sunday the automaker posted photos of an Air decked out in police equipment on X (formerly Twitter). Lucid said the car had recently participated in California Highway Patrol testing, but did not provide any other details. We’ve reached out to Lucid with questions and will update this story if and when we hear back.

Lucid Air police car

Lucid Air police car

While Lucid has submitted the Air to the California Highway Patrol for testing, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the electric sedan enter service with Saudi Arabian police forces in the future. Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is Lucid’s largest shareholder, and in 2022 the country’s government agreed to buy up to 100,000 Lucid EVs. That same year, Lucid announced plans to open a factory in Saudi Arabia in 2025.

Several California police departments already roster electric cars, including some Teslas modified by the UP.FIT division of tuner Unplugged Performance. The company recently unveiled a police version of the Tesla Model S Plaid, and has performed similar work on at least one Cybertruck as well as Model 3 and Model Y electric vehicles.

Lucid Air police car

Lucid Air police car

 

However, some California police departments have criticized these Tesla conversions for maintenance difficulties, as well as the lack of space in the smaller Model 3 and Model Y.

Aside from Unplugged Performance’s Tesla conversions, police departments looking to go electric generally haven’t had many options. That’s starting to change, with Ford and General Motors introducing police versions of the F-150 Lightning and Chevrolet Blazer EV, respectively. Stellantis has also teased a police version of the upcoming Dodge Charger Daytona.

2025 Porsche Taycan 4 and Taycan GTS expand lineup to 13 iterations
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2025 Porsche Taycan 4 and Taycan GTS expand lineup to 13 iterations

  • A Porsche Taycan 4 and revised GTS model join the 2025 lineup
  • The Porsche Taycan is now available in 13 different versions
  • When they arrive in 2025 the Taycan 4 will cost $105,295 while the GTS will cost $149,895

The 2025 Porsche Taycan received an engineering-focused refresh that improved range and efficiency, the benefits of which are now being spread across more models.

Porsche on Tuesday confirmed new versions of the Taycan 4 and Taycan GTS, the latter available in both the standard sedan and the Sport Turismo wagon body styles. They grow a lineup that already includes several grades ranging from the base Taycan to the record-setting Turbo GT performance variant, as well as a third Cross Turismo body style, adding up to 13 different versions.

The Taycan 4 sedan is priced from $105,295 with the mandatory $1,995 destination fee. The GTS costs $149,895 in sedan form, while the Sport Turismo wagon costs $151,795. All three are available to order now, with deliveries scheduled to start late in the first quarter of 2025.

2025 Porsche Taycan GTS

2025 Porsche Taycan GTS

Slotting between the base Taycan and the Taycan 4S, the Taycan 4 sedan joins the existing Taycan 4 Cross Turismo in offering a dual-motor all-wheel-drive powertrain rated at 402 hp, or 429 hp when launch control is engaged. That’s the same as the base rear-wheel-drive Taycan, but the 4 will accelerate from 0-60 mph in 4.4 seconds, or 0.1 second quicker, according to Porsche.

The Taycan 4 is available with both the standard “Performance” battery, which grew to 83.6 kwh usable (89 kwh gross) for the 2025 model year, or the “Performance Battery Plus,” which saw a roughly 15% increase in capacity to 97 kwh usable (105 kwh gross) for 2025.

Taycan GTS models now boast up to 690 hp with launch control—100 hp more than the previous versions. A push-to-pass function, part of the standard Sport Chrono Package, adds up to 93 hp for 10 seconds at a time. Both the sedan and Sport Turismo models will accelerate from 0-60 mph in a Porsche-estimated 3.1 seconds—0.4 second quicker than their respective predecessors. The sedan will also run the quarter-mile in 11.1 seconds—0.7 second quicker than before.

2025 Porsche Taycan GTS

2025 Porsche Taycan GTS

GTS models also feature chassis upgrades, including available rear-wheel steering, adaptive air suspension, torque vectoring, and an active anti-roll system. That should further enhance performance, although in a first drive back in April we found the real benefit of this refresh is that it pairs performance with greater efficiency.

EPA range ratings will be available closer to launch, but the additional models will likely fall between the current high of 318 miles and low of 266 miles for the slipperier sedan body style. They’ll also benefit from a charge curve that’s been lifted and broadened, with its peak of 320 kw (or 270 kw for the base battery) now taking better advantage of 350-kw Combined Charging Standard (CCS) connectors.